A popular opinion is not market evidence. The linked discussion uses a hypothetical disagreement about an online business and a 95-to-5 split to make its point. That percentage is an illustrative scenario, not a measured statistic. Before investing heavily, test the idea with customers and real costs.
Five questions to investigate
- Who is the customer, and what specific problem do they have? Define a narrow group and a situation they already try to solve.
- What alternatives exist? Learn how people solve the problem now and what they like or dislike about those options.
- Will someone pay? A compliment or survey response is weaker evidence than a small paid pilot, preorder, or other ethical test of willingness to pay.
- What are the costs and break-even assumptions? Include acquisition, delivery, support, taxes, returns, and time—not only product costs.
- Can you test small with a stop limit? Set a budget and success measure before a pilot. Stop or revise if evidence does not support the idea.
Keep experiments honest: explain what is being tested, protect customer data, and do not promise outcomes you cannot deliver. A small trial reduces the cost of learning but cannot eliminate business risk. This is a planning checklist, not a guarantee of commercial success.